Inflation does not arrive on one official day

Inflation does not arrive on one official day. It shows up on several calendars at once, and they do not match.

By Leo Hartman

· Updated · 1 min read

A wall calendar showing September and October 2007
A wall calendar. Official inflation figures follow several different calendars, not a single date. Photo: Claudio Elias, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.

Inflation does not arrive on one official day. It shows up on several calendars at once, and they do not match.

Social Security’s cost-of-living adjustment is announced in October and, for most beneficiaries, lands in the January check; this year’s increase was 2.8 percent, and the Social Security Administration has already set next year’s at 3.6 percent. Series I savings bonds get a new combined rate every May 1 and Nov. 1; the rate on bonds issued from Nov. 1, 2026, through April 30, 2027, is 5.51 percent, TreasuryDirect says, but an older bond changes on the six-month anniversary of its own issue month. Income-tax brackets and the standard deduction are published in the fall for the following tax year. Credit-card interest rates in the Fed’s G.19 come out quarterly, in the middle month of the quarter, not on the day a bill arrives.

Each of those numbers is “current” in a different way. A January Social Security payment already includes this year’s COLA. A 401(k) deferral is still capped at this year’s $24,500 until Jan. 1. An I bond bought in August does not pick up the November inflation rate until February. People who treat every headline as if it applied yesterday end up mixing next year’s tax table with this year’s paycheck.

The practical habit is unglamorous: look at the date on the official table, and ask which year, or which six-month window, it actually governs. The government is not late so much as it is running several clocks.

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